ABSTRACT
The strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific will evolve dramatically over the course of North Korea’s denuclearisation. Any endgame of denuclearisation on the Korean Peninsula is expected to shift the strategic interests of regional powers in the Indo-Pacific. It will influence not only the concept of regional strategic stability but also the extended deterrence that has long sustained the US strategic dominance in the region. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss strategic aspects of current denuclearisation negotiation and how it will interact with Sino-US strategic competition that will define security environment in a foreseeable future. By observing North Korea’s siege mentality and corresponding strategic goals, its denuclearisation strategy can be analysed. The current status of North Korea’s denuclearisation negotiation and the corresponding Sino-US strategic competition would generate an inhospitable environment for negotiation. Although the advent of divided government in the United States after the 2018 midterm election makes it difficult to predict who will control the foreign policy agenda within the remaining term of President Trump, strategic uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific and the struggles of US allies in the Indo-Pacific to manage strategic hedging amid power transition in the region would persist, which would make it less likely to observe denuclearisation of the North in the immediate future.
