Carbonomics and H2Onomy

The future is uncertain. Environmental changes, including global warming, ocean acidification, and biodiversity losses, have unknown consequences for human societies. Political tensions resulting from the conflicting strategic priorities of nation states and other actors also represent potential threats to stability. In combination with increasing resource pressures, population growth and forced migration, these trends mean that human civilization may look very different by mid-century, if indeed the international order survives at all. This chapter presents a thought experiment considering uncomfortable but not unrealistic scenarios of coming decades, in which environmental stressors continue to increase and challenge the sustainability of organizations and societies. The analysis proceeds by considering the historical features and character of international governance responses to climate change, in which carbon dioxide (CO₂) is a baseline metric to measure the global warming impacts of all greenhouse gases. Building on this discussion, the chapter considers potential governance responses to scenarios of extreme environmental stress. The thought experiment finds that as governments focus on mitigation efforts using carbon as the central proxy, it is likely that there will be widespread breakdowns in societal functioning. The survival of agricultural and manufacturing industries – and, more fundamentally, of communities – in these areas will depend above all on water. The results of the analysis highlight the fundamental importance of carbon and water as currency standards at different scales – the international and the local – in scenarios of environmental disruption and societal collapse or transformation. These future dynamics are characterized as global ‘carbonomics’ and a local water economy, or ‘H₂Onomy.’ The chapter explores drivers, characteristics and implications of these scenarios.