ABSTRACT

At least three most salient social changes occurring gradually in Pakistan carry great potential to influence future politics and the way the country will be governed. They are urbanisation, migration and the emergence of very large middle and professional classes. This chapter assesses the challenges and prospects of democracy in Pakistan while focusing on two important products of the recent social transformation: the emergence of new social forces and the vitality of civil society, amid the enduring crisis of civil-military relations. The main argument is that institutional structures of democracy – constitution, elections, political parties and parliament – are necessary but not enough to sustain and consolidate democracy in Pakistan, which has a long history of military intervention. A sustainable shift towards participatory politics would depend on both the political behaviour of dominant elites and the social context within which they operate, and whether or not the contestants for power use democratic means and the social forces consider them as the only legitimate means to power. The pages ahead first explore the prerequisites of sustaining democracy in Pakistan and then assess whether the country meets them in view of the historical trajectory of civil-military relations. Subsequent discussion focuses on recent social and political transformations. The concluding part analyses key challenges to democratic consolidation, and answers the question of whether they can be tackled through the shifts underway in politics and society.