ABSTRACT
Through the twentieth century, population grew at an unprecedented rate. During this time, developing countries transitioned to low death rates, thereby fueling global population growth. In developed countries, birth rates and death rates generally declined at the same rate, leading to nearly stagnating population growth rates. As a result of this difference in growth paths, 80% of the population growth since 1900 has taken place in developing countries, particularly in the world’s poorer countries. During the last century, growth in global food production surpassed population growth, leading to an overall improvement in per capita food consumption at the aggregate level. In developing countries, the key factors that influenced diets were income growth and urbanization; these factors led to increased demand for higher-value farm products, such as animal proteins, fruits, and vegetables. During 1970 to 2005, daily per capita calorie availability in developing countries increased
Abstract .................................................................................................................. 361 Trend in Population Growth ................................................................................... 362 Trend in Global Food Availability ......................................................................... 363 Adequacy of Food .................................................................................................. 367 Performance of Components of Food Consumption: Production, Trade, and Food Aid ................................................................................................................. 367
Trends in Food Production ................................................................................ 368 Role of Trade in Food Availability .................................................................... 370 Role of Food Aid ............................................................................................... 370
Food Availability Oulook in the Context of Emerging Issues ............................... 371 Nutrition Outlook .............................................................................................. 372 Food Production Outlook .................................................................................. 373 Food Trade Outlook .......................................................................................... 375
Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 376 Study Topics ...................................................................................................... 377
References .............................................................................................................. 378
at three times the rate of developed countries. However, the available food has not been distributed evenly. At one extreme, there is the United States, where per capita food availability exceeded 3500 calories per day in 2005. At the other extreme is sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where per capita food availability averaged only 2300 calories. The paradox of the increase in global food availability and persistent hunger stems from income inequality both among and within countries. One of the key variables determining the outlook for food availability, the growth rate of world population, is on a slowing growth path. More than 90% of the population growth will be in developing countries. Improvements in global per capita food availability are expected to continue, but gains will be slower than historical rates. While there will be adequate food to keep up with demand at the global level, millions will continue to go hungry because of national unequal distribution of income that limits food purchasing power.
