ABSTRACT
This chapter looks at the challenges the Belarusian opposition faces in raising the cost of adaptive authoritarian rule under Lukashenka. These include internal divisions within the opposition camp. Cleavages are identified that are of an ideological or geopolitical nature, reflect personal ambitions or generational divisions, and demonstrate splits between Minsk and the regions. It also demonstrates how the opposition has employed a variety of tactics to challenge the Belarusian regime. It explains how the opposition initially rejected the legitimacy of the system that Lukashenka was trying to install, and how instead they sought to maintain parallel bodies. It looks at how the opposition has sought to take advantage of the opportunities provided within electoral authoritarianism, such as standing for election and protesting the unfair rules of the game around polling day. The chapter also illustrates the wider forms of contentious politics the opposition have pursued, both online and on the street. These include calls for boycotts, unsanctioned political protests, and also demonstrations on social and economic matters. To date, the regime’s adaptive authoritarianism has been able to respond to these challenges with all the tools at their disposal.
