ABSTRACT

In this chapter, the authors analyze the predictions of abstention theory they seek to test and discuss the variables they use to measure indifference, cost, and closeness. The actual probability that a given voter is decisive depends on the distribution of benefits and costs across the set of legislators. If a substantial number of legislators with negative net costs prefer one roll call outcome and a smaller number prefer the other, the outcome will be lopsided if only individuals with negative net costs vote. The authors specify a logit model that is used for hypothesis testing and present the empirical results. Their comparison of the House and Senate indicates some difficulties in testing theories of turnout. Although abstentions appear related to cost, closeness of the vote, and indifference throughout the history of Congress, the predictions concerning silent majorities and size effects are supported only for some historical periods.