ABSTRACT
ADAM see Australian Data Archive for Meteorology
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 153, 165; data bank (South Africa) 360; rainfall estimation 187
Africa: Kenya 52-67; monitoring for famine relief 223-33; predictability in Ethiopia 135-42; Sahel 24, 25, 290, 309(n6); see also South Africa (Republic of); southern Africa; sub-Saharan Africa
AGCM see atmospheric general circulation model
‘Agenda 21’ 55 agricultural drought 10, 11;
Canadian Prairies 321, 325-6; definition 9, 182; Ethiopia 203-5; impact on crops 11; India 186, 192; indices (India) 191-2; Morocco 279, 280-3; southern Spain 376-7; termination 12
agricultural drought-day 161 agricultural growth multipliers,
Africa 305 agricultural impact: China 339;
South Africa 354-6; USA 250-1, 256-68
agricultural production: Australia 212, 215; and Brazilian rainfall 79; India 193; Kenya 52, 61, 65, 66; southern Spain 375, 376-7
agriculture: assistance policy 225-8; ENSO-based forecasts 48; southern Africa 299-300
agropolitics, FSU 381, 382-5
Agulhas Current, SSTs 121,126 aid: Africa 287; see also food aid AMIP see Atmospheric Modelling
Intercomparison Project analogue forecasting method,
Ethiopia 136 Anasazi people (USA) 238-9 animal husbandry see livestock
raising Antecedent Precipitation Index
(API) 161 anticyclone, USA 86, 87-8 API see Antecedent Precipitation
Index aquifers, southern Spain 375 arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL),
Kenya 52 aridity, definition 8, 161 aridity index (India) 185, 191 artificial rain, NE Brazil 77 assistance 225-8; effect on
environment 228-9 Adantic Ocean: influence on
southern Africa 118, 121-2; SSTs 36, 70, 80, 121; see also North Adantic Ocean
atmospheric circulation: Africa and Asia 335; southern Africa 117-19; southern Spain 373-4; and summer rainfall (China) 103-4
atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) 73; simulations (NE Brazil) 74-6
Atmospheric Modelling Intercomparison Project (AMIP) 123
Australia: agricultural production 212, 215; Bureau of Meteorology 210, 213, 220; climate change 48-9; climate services 210-22; forecasting 44-9; history 44; impact of ENSO 41-4; precipitation time series 41-2; prediction 218-20, 221-2; rainfall data 213; rainfall decile maps 214-16; rainfall deficiency 216-17; Seasonal Climate Oudook 45-6, 219-22
Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM) 218, 220
Australian Drought Watch Service 165, 210, 211, 216-18, 220-1
AVHRR see Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
biophysical impact, South Africa 352-4
biophysical models, economic impact in USA 257-61
boreal forest drought 321 bottom-up models, impact
evaluation 256-62, 266-7 Brazil (northeast) 68-82; 1979-83
drought 13; AGCM simulations 74-6; artificial rain 77; dynamics 70-2; forecasting methods 72-3, 78-80; mean climate 69; mitigation 76-7; monitoring and prediction 77-8; numerical prediction 76; rainfall patterns 68, 69, 71; SST forecasts 33-4
brightness temperature (BT) 199-200
BT see brightness temperature budgetary implications, southern
Africa 302-4 Burkina Faso 296; commodity prices
299; economic sensitivity 297; remittances 301
bush fires, South Africa 354
California (USA): SPI 178-9; winter rainfall 96
Canada, crop weather monitoring 225
Canadian Agriculture Weather Monitoring System (CAWM) 225
Canadian Analysis of Drought in Africa (CANDAF) 225, 230, 231
Canadian Prairies 312-30; pre-1900 droughts 321; 1961 drought 320, 321; analogy with steppes 383, 385, 387; cause of droughts 319-20; ‘dirty eighties’ 320, 323, 328; ‘dirty thirties’ 320, 321-3, 328; documentation (1987-8 drought) 313-15; hot spells and health 324; impact 317-18, 324-7; measurement 315-19; mitigation 319; monitoring 318-19; prediction 328-9
CANDAF see Canadian Analysis of Drought in Africa
CAWM see Canadian Agriculture Weather Monitoring System
Ceara State (Brazil), climate forecasts 78-80
Cedro I dam (Brazil) 77 cereal production see grain
production cereal reserves, southern Africa
300-1 CGM see crop growth model characteristics of drought 12-13,
17, 196 China 100-12, 331-47; agricultural
impact 339; animal husbandry 339-40; correlation coefficients 103-4; crop yields 101; desertification 341-3; disasters 100-1; distribution 331, 332-3; drought/flood documentation
106-8; forestry 340-1; frequency (1951-91) 101-2; history 108-11, 333-5; impact assessment 343-7; index 332-3; industry 341; meteorological yields 101; monitoring 343-4; monsoon climate 331; predictability 103-6; summer rainfall 103-6, 107; teleconnection 333-6; urban development 341; vegetation stress 201-3; water resources 336-9
circulation anomalies, US droughts 84
climate: Iberian Peninsula 367-9; virgin lands (FSU) 381-3
climate change: 1970s decade 235; Australia 48-9; China 343; and natural hazards 246; prediction (USA) 265-6; Ricardian analysis 263-5; shifts 235; surprises theory 234-6
Climate Information and Prediction Service (CLIPS) 141
climate records, and famine classification 230
climate services, Australia 210-22 climate variability 54; Africa 289-
90; decadal scale 28, 35-6; NE Brazil 69
Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Study 61
climatological drought see meteorological drought
climatology of drought 91-3, 196 CLIPS see Climate Information and
Prediction Service CLIVAR see Climate Variability and
Predictability Study cloud seeding, NE Brazil 77 CMI see Crop Moisture Index coefficient of variation (CV)
(precipitation), Canadian Prairies 316,317
Colorado Plateau (USA): environmental variability 240; medieval period 238-9
Colorado (USA), SPI 165 commodity prices, impact 299 community climax model (CCM) 75
complex economies, impact 292, 295, 307
concept of drought 4-8 conceptual forecasting methods
72-3 conceptual model, southern Africa
116 conservation cropping system, FSU
387 continentality: Canadian Prairies
320; virgin lands (FSU) 382 coping strategies see response
strategies correlation analysis model, southern
Africa 125 correlation coefficients, China
103-4 cotton farming, China 201, 203 coupled models 73, 80; Australia
45-8; prospects 34-5; SST forecasts 29
CPTEC 73, 79 creeping phenomenon 5, 245-55,
343 crisis management 14,15 crop failure: South Africa 350; USA
3-4; see also agricultural drought crop growth model (CGM) 271,
273 Crop Moisture Index (CMI) 13, 89,
90, 164 crop prices, Morocco 282 crop production: Kazakhstan (FSU)
205-6; Poland 206-7; South America 205
crop simulator models, impact in USA 257-61
crop weather monitoring 223-4; Canada 225
crop yield drought 322 crop yields: Australia 43; Canadian
Prairies 325-6; China 101; India 192-3; modelling (USA) 25762; South Africa 271
cultivation methods: Morocco 280-2, 284-5; virgin lands (FSU) 384-5, 387
CV see coefficient of variation
data: physical environment 146; precipitation in Spain 369-70;
see also weather data data collection platform (DCP),
Brazil 78 decadal scale, climate variability 28,
35-6, 235 defining drought 6, 8-12, 70, 83,
200, 348; conceptual definition 8-9; operational definition 9
dendrochronology, Colorado Plateau (USA) 238
dependable rains (DR) 165 desertification: China 341-3; FSU
385-6; risk assessment 345-7 development see economic
development development planning, and impact
304-5 DIAS see drought impact assessment
system disaster management 13-16 disasters 3, 4, 246; China 100-1;
definition 15; management 13-14; prevention 54; reduction (Ethiopia) 141; relief 246; by type 5; see also hazards
divergence 84 DMFS see Drought Monitoring and
Forecasting System documentation: Canadian Prairies
1987-8 drought 313-15; Ethiopia 135, 141
DR see dependable rains Drought Area Index (India) 190 drought impact assessment system
(DIAS) (China) 345 Drought Monitoring and
Forecasting System (DMFS) (South Africa) 276, 277
drought severity, computing 269-78 drought/flood grades, China
107-11 dryland farming, FSU 382, 383,
384-5 dualistic economies: impact 292,
295, 297, 308, 309(nl7); Zambia 297
duration 10, 13, 190 dust storms: Canadian Prairies
322-3, 326; FSU 382, 385 dynamics of drought, Canadian
Prairies 316-17
early warning systems (EWS) 16, 230-1; Australia 218-20; China 344-5; Ethiopia 140; second millenium 234-42; South Africa 360; USA 252, 253
earthquakes 335-6 eco-environment, China 342 economic development, impact
295-6, 298 economic drought (sub-Saharan
Africa) 287-311; budgetary implications 302-47; case studies 296-306; definition 288-9; and development 295-6, 298, 304-5; economic structure 291-6; ‘inverted U’ hypothesis 295-6; multiplier effects 289
economic impact 12, 247, 248, 250; bottom-up models 256-62, 266-7; Canadian Prairies 322; categories 344; Kenya 57-8; South Africa 351, 359; top-down models 257, 263-7; US agriculture 256-68; see also economic drought
El Nino: Australia 41-2, 44, 219; forecasting models 45-6; USA 91
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 26-8; Australia 4 1 ^ ; coupled models 35; Ethiopia 137, 140, 141; forecasts for agriculture 48; Kenya 56, 59; Pacific Ocean 70, 359; and precipitation 30-1; predictability 35; prediction 256; southern Africa 116, 119-20; USA 88-9, 91,92-3
employment and migration, South Africa 357-9
ensemble prediction technique 95 ENSO see El Nino-Southern
Oscillation environmental impact 247, 249,
251; assistance 228-9; categories 344; South Africa 351
environmental losses 247 environmental variability, Colorado
Plateau (USA) 240 EPIC see Erosion Productivity
Impact Calculator
Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) 258-9, 261
Ethiopia 135-42, 296-7; agricultural vs meteorological drought 203-5; disaster prevention 141; documentation 135, 141; drought-prone areas 138-9; ENSO events 137,140, 141; forecasting methods 135-6, 141; government policy 301-2; impact 139; indicators 136-9; periodicity 139; predictability 139-40, 141-2; rainfall patterns 204; warning system 136, 140
evapotranspiration 84-6 exports, impact 298 extractive economies see dualistic
economies extreme drought, California
1928-34 238
fallow, role in mitigation 280-1, 284
famine 6; categories (Africa) 229; classification by climate 230; FSU 383; Kenya 57-8; relief (monitoring for) 229-33
farm drought, definition 312 farm transfers, South Africa 358 Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) (USA) 252-3 FEMA see Federal Emergency
Management Agency financial aid, southern Africa 307 financial systems, role in economic
drought 291, 294-5 fires: China 341; South Africa 354;
southern Spain 377; USA 1996 250-1
floods documentation, China 107-8 flow anomalies, USA 87 food aid 229; Africa 287, 307;
South Africa 356 food production: FSU 381, 383;
see also agricultural production food security, South Africa 356-7 food shortages 229; Morocco 279,
281 forecasts: accuracy 16; Australia
44-9; Ethiopia 135-6, 141; impact 261-2; methods 30-4;
models (USA) 94; NE Brazil 72-3; severity 274-6; southern Africa 122-6; SSTs 29-30, 31, 33-4; summer rainfall (China) 105-6; see also numerical forecasting models; prediction
forest fires: Canadian Prairies 326, 327; China 341
forestry: China 340-1; southern Spain 377
Free State Province (South Africa), drought severity 269-78
frequency: China (1951-91) 101-2; India 182-4
FSU see (former) Soviet Union
GDP see Gross Domestic Product GIEWS see Global Information and
Early Warning System GIS system 270-1 global climate patterns 24-8 global detection 196-209 Global Information and Early
Warning System (GIEWS) (FAO) 224
Global Vegetation Index (GVI) 199 global warming 256 GNP see Gross National Product government policy: southern Africa
301-2; USA 1996 drought 252-3, 254
grain losses, China 339 grain production: and Brazilian
rainfall 79; China 342; FSU 381, 383, 384, 386; India 193; modelling (USA) 257-62; Morocco 281
grass yields, China 342 grassland: China 340; South Africa
353,354 Great Plains (USA) 3, 13, 89;
1987-8 drought 323;1995-6 drought 177-8
greenhouse gases 256 Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
impact 296 Gross National Product (GNP),
percentage disaster losses 4 groundwater 11, 12; China 337-8;
monitoring 146; South Africa 353
groundwater drought, definition 315
GVI see Global Vegetation Index
hazards 3-18,246; characteristics 6, 7; definition 14-15; types of event 6, 7
hindcasts, severity 275, 276 historical record 148,234-42;
Africa and Asia 333-5; Canadian Prairies 321; China 108-11, 333-5; Ethiopia 135; Morocco 280; Nebraska 170-7; Sierra Nevada (USA) 236-8; South Africa 348-9; southern Africa 113-17; southern Spain 372
hot spells, effect on health 324 hydrological drought 10, 11-12;
Canadian Prairies 315; definition 182; index 162; southern Spain 374-6; termination 12
hydropower generation: Africa 289, 301, 310(n23); China 340; southern Spain 376; USA 247, 250
Iberian Peninsula, synoptic systems 367-9
IDNDR see International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction
impact 245-55; Canadian Prairies 317-18, 324-7; classification 245-50, 344, 351; direct and indirect 247; Ethiopia 139; evaluation models 257-67; India 192-3; Kenya 52-3, 54-67; Morocco 283-5; South Africa 350-2; water resources in China 336-9; western USA 1996 250-1; see also agricultural impact; economic impact; social impact
impact assessment 225-8; drought 6, 7, 10, 15, 17; hazards 7; methodology (China) 343-7; by satellite 196-209
IMPLAN crop simulation model (USA) 258, 261
imports, impact 298 income loss 247 India 13; 1877 drought 44;
agricultural drought 186; categories 189-90; duration 190; frequency 182-4; impact 192-3; indices 190-2; intensity 190; meteorological data 184-5; monitoring 185-90; monsoon rainfall 26; rainfall patterns 183-4; remote sensing 187-8; synoptic features 181
Indian Ocean, influence on southern Africa 117, 118, 120-1
indicators, Ethiopia 136-9 indices 12-13,150-4,159-67; API
161; aridity index (India) 185; Canadian Prairies 317; China 332-3, 335; criteria 159-60; definition 159; early indices 159-62; India 190-2; MAI 192; Palmer Drought Index family 150, 162-4; SMI 192; SPI 150-3,165,168-80; SWSI 164; Thornthwaite 160-1
industry, China 341 information: access 149;
dissemination 140; presentation 149-50, 220-2
integrated climate monitoring 145-58
intensity 12, 190, 371-2; India 190; southern Spain 371-2
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ): equatorial Adantic 69, 70, 74; Kenya 53
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 54
intermediate economies: impact 292, 293-5, 307; Kenya 296; Senegal 296; Zimbabwe 296-7
International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) 54, 246
International Drought Information Center (USA) 247
‘inverted U’ hypothesis 295-6 IPCC see Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change irrigation, southern Spain 375-6 ITCZ see Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone
jetstreams: Africa 53-4; USA 86-8
‘Joseph’ effect 22, 24
Kariba, Lake (Zimbabwe), 1991-92 drought 301
Kazakhstan (FSU): 1991-92 drought 200-1; crop production 205-6; dryland farming 382, 384-5; state farms 382, 387; weather data 202; wheat cultivation 383-4
Kenya 52-67; 1996-7 drought 57-8, 60-1, 62; agricultural production 52, 61, 65, 66; annual patterns of drought 58; causes of drought 53-4; commodity prices 299; development planning 304-5; economic sensitivity 297; ENSO impact 56, 59; famine disaster 57-8; monitoring 65; patterns 58; prediction methods 61-7; rainfall needs 52-3; rainfall patterns 55-6, 57, 59, 63; socioeconomic impact 57-8; structural adjustment 305-6
Kleeman model, El Nino forecast 45-6
La Nina: Australia 42; USA 89, 92, 93
land concentration, Morocco 280-1 land degradation: and impact 300;
South Africa 354, 361 land values, impact of climate
variation 263-5 legislation, USA 253 LEPS scores, southern Africa 126 livestock raising: Canadian Prairies
326; China 339^40; Morocco 284; southern Spain 377
losses: China 339; environmental 247; income 247; southern Spain 376-7; USA 3-4, 251
MAI see Moisture Availability Index malnutrition, South Africa 356-7 Manitoba (Canada), wheat yields
325 manufacturing industry, Zimbabwe
293-4 marginal lands, FSU 381, 387
mathematical models, predictability 26
measurement, Canadian Prairies 315-19
mechanisation, role in mitigation 282-3, 285
medieval period, USA 237-40 meteorological data, India 184-5 meteorological drought: definition
10-11,21-2, 181; Ethiopia 203-5; indices 162-3, 190-1; Kenya 55-6; predictability 27; prediction 21-40
meteorological yields, China 101 migration: South Africa 357-9;
southern Africa 301 millennium context 234-42 MINK**
Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas study
Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) study 257-61
mitigation 15-16, 251-2, 308; Canadian Prairies 319; role of mechanisation 282-3, 285; NE Brazil 76-7; South Africa 359-61, 363; southern Spain 377-8
model output statistics (MOS) 33 modelling approach, USA 94-5 moisture adequacy index 162 Moisture Availability Index (MAI)
192 moisture fluxes, USA 85 moisture stress-day 161 monitoring 16; Africa 224-5;
Australia 220-2; NE Brazil 77-8; Canadian Prairies 318-19; China 343-4; components 343-4; data availability 196-8; data collection 157; duration and extent 188-90; for famine relief 229, 231; impact-related information 146; India 185-90; long-term commitment 157; need for 145-6; networks 154-7; physical environment data 146; South Africa 269-70, 274, 360; using SPI 168-80; US programme 252; weather-based system 223-4, 231
Mono Lake (Nevada) 236, 237 monsoon climate: China 331; India
183; Kenya 53 Monsoon Deficiency Index (India)
191 Morocco 279-86; agricultural
methods 280-2; coping strategies 283-5; history 280; potential 280-3; rainfall needs 279-80
multidecadal droughts, Sierra Nevada (USA) 236-8
multiple regression model 63; southern Africa 125
NAD AMS see National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System
Namibia, relief expenditures 304 NAO see North Atlantic Oscillation National Agricultural Drought
Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS) (India) 188, 189
National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) (India) 187
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) (USA) 168, 169
National Drought Advice Committee (NDA) (FSP) 276
National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (USA) 152, 165,168,169, 253
national drought policy (NDP), USA 253, 254
National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) (Ethiopia) 136, 139,140
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (USA) 153, 165; AVHRR data (South Africa) 360
National Rainfall Index (RI) 165 National Weather Service (NWS)
(USA) 89; network 154-5; use of PDSI 163
natural disasters see disasters natural hazards see hazards NCDC see National Climatic Data
Center
NCEP seasonal prediction model 94, 96
NCMRWF see National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting
NDA see National Drought Advice Committee
NDMC see National Drought Mitigation Center
NDVI see Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
Nebraska (USA), historical analyses 170-7
networks, monitoring 154-7 Nevada (USA), precipitation history
236-8 NIN03 region, monitoring 219-20 NMSA see National Meteorological
Services Agency NOAA see National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration ‘Noah’ effect 22 Normalized Difference Vegetation
Index (NDVI) 153-4,188, 198-200; South Africa 360
North Atlantic Ocean, SST variation 36
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index 373
numerical forecasting models: NE Brazil 73, 76; rainfall patterns 32-3; South Africa 359; SST forecast 29-30; USA 94
NWS see National Weather Service
Oklahoma (USA), SPI 150-3 operational seasonal forecasts,
southern Africa 125 orographic effects, US droughts 84 overstocking, South Africa 354
Palmer Drought Index family 150, 162-4; categories 163; computation 162-3; criticisms 163-4; Crop Moisture Index (CMI) 164; Palmer Z index 162
Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) 13 ,14,21,90, 150, 163-4; California 178; Canadian Prairies 317, 318, 324, 328; criticism 168; early warning 345;
Nebraska 173; USA 198 Palmer Hydrological Drought Index
(PHDI) 150,162 PDSI see Palmer Drought Severity
Index pentad data 24 periodicity, Brazilian droughts 72 PHDI see Palmer Hydrological
Drought Index Pilot Research moored Array over
the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) project 78
PIRATA see Pilot Research moored Array over the Tropical Atlantic project
ploughing, steppelands 384-6 Poland, crop production 206-7 policies: South Africa 361-3; USA
252-3, 254 political decisions, Virgin Lands
Scheme (FSU) 381, 382-5 population growth, China 342-3 population pressure see social impact power generation: China 340; see
also hydropower generation precipitation: index (Sahel) 25;
measurement (SPI) 168-80; monitoring 146; pentad data 24; percentage of normal 12; predictability 27-8; time series 22, 23, 28, 41-2; tree-ring records 236-7; variability (Canadian Prairies) 316-17; volume analysis (southern Spain) 369-73
predictability: Australia 44-9; China 100-12; Ethiopia 139-40, 141-2; evidence 24-8; meteorological drought 27; NE Brazil 68; southern Africa 123-4
prediction 16; Australia 218-20, 221-2; Canadian Prairies 328-9; improved methods 30-6; Kenya 61-7; meteorological drought 21-40; NE Brazil 68-82; numerical model forecasts 28-30; statistical techniques 28-9; USA 83-99; see also forecasts, methods
Prediction of Climate Variations on Seasonal to Interannual Time
Scales (PROVOST) 34-5, 36 prehistoric period 237, 239 preparedness 16 probability: forecasts in Australia 45;
Kenya 58 prognostic forecasting methods
72-3 PROVOST see Prediction of Climate
Variations on Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales
public borrowing, impact 302-3 public policy, role in economic
drought 291
QBO see Quasi-Biennial Oscillation quadratic discriminant analysis
model, southern Africa 125 Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO),
southern Africa 122, 125, 126, 127
rainfall: annual evolution (southern Spain) 370-3; anomalies (Africa) 290; China 103-6, 336; coupled models 47; estimation by remote sensing 187; forecasts (NE Brazil) 34; maps (Australia) 214-16; measurement 22
rainfall needs: Kenya 52-3; Morocco 279-80
rainfall patterns: Ethiopia 204; India 183-4; Kenya 55-6, 57, 59, 63; NE Brazil 68, 69, 71; South Africa 348-9, 352; southern Spain 368-9
rainfall variability: Australia 42; Kenya 55-6, 64; southern Africa 113, 114-16; southern Spain 367-8
RAINMAN forecasting program 31-2
range fires, USA 1996 250-1 RAWS see Remote Automatic
Weather Station recovery 15 rehabilitation 15 relief 246; South Africa 361-2;
southern Africa 287 Remote Automatic Weather Station
(RAWS) (USA) network 155-7
remote sensing 196-209; India 187-8
response strategies 15; Morocco 283-5; southern Africa 287-8; Spanish drought (1991-5) 374-8; USA 1996 252-3
RI see National Rainfall Index Ricardian analysis, climate variation
263-5 risk 9, 15, 91-3, 235; Canadian
Prairies 329; desertification 345 river basins 11-12 runoff, China 336-7 rural-urban migration, South Africa
357-9
Sahel (Africa) 24; climatic trends 290, 309(n6); precipitation index 25
Saskatchewan (Canada): dust storms 326; PDSI 317, 318; wheat yields 325
satellite data: China 201-3; Ethiopia 203-5; Kazakhstan 200-1, 205; NDVT 154; Poland 206-7; South America 205; TCI 196; USA 201; VCI 196; vegetation 198-200
sea surface temperatures (SSTs): North Atlantic 36; tropical Atlantic 70, 80, 121; local patterns 33; eastern Pacific 138; North Pacific 89; relation to precipitation 28; statistical forecasts 29-30, 31, 33-4, 46
sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs): equatorial Pacific 115; models 29-30; southern Africa 120-2, 126; tropical Adantic 69, 72-3, 74-5, 80
Seasonal Climate Outlook (SCO) (Australia) 45-6, 219-20, 221
seasonal forecasts see forecasts Senegal, economic drought 299,
306 setders, virgin lands (FSU) 384 severity 6, 7, 8, 12-13, 269-78;
computing 271-3; definition 270; forecasting 274-6
Sherman’s (b statistic 22-4 Siberia (FSU): state farms 382;
wheat cultivation 383, 385 Sierra Nevada (USA), history 236-8 simple economies: Burkina Faso
296; Ethiopia 296; impact 291, 292-3, 307-8
SMI see Soil Moisture Index SNOTEL see Snowpack Telemetry Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL)
(USA) network 155-6 social impact 249; categories 344;
and duration 285; Kenya 57-8; South Africa 351, 356-9
soil conservation measures, FSU 387
soil erosion, FSU 382, 385 soil moisture: monitoring 146;
remote sensing 187-8 Soil Moisture Index (SMI) 192 South Africa (Republic of) 348-66;
agricultural impact 354-6; biophysical impact 352-4; dualistic economy 309(nl7); economic impact 351, 359; employment and migration 357-9; food security 356-7; mitigation 359-61, 363; monitoring 360; occurrences 348-9; policy 361-3; rainfall patterns 348-9; severity 269-78
South African Weather Bureau 359 South America, crop production
205 southern Africa 113-34; 1991-2
drought 4-5; atmospheric circulation (drought years) 117-19, 126; causes of drought 119-22; ENSO events 119-20; local droughts 201; occurrence and frequency 113-17; operational seasonal forecasts 125; predictability 123-4; rainfall variability 113, 114-16; SSTAs 120-2; statistical modelling 125-6; see also sub-Saharan Africa
Southern Oscillation 26; see also El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) 27, 28; Australia 44, 45, 219; equatorial Pacific 115; Ethiopia 137-8; prediction 47-8; time
series 43, 47; USA 91 (former) Soviet Union, Virgin
Lands Scheme 381-8 Spain (southern) 367-80;
atmospheric circulation 373-4; climate 367-9; history 372; mitigation measures 377-8; rainfall analysis 369-73; water resources impact 374-7
spatial characteristics 13, 14 spatial domain issues 148-9 SPI see Standardized Precipitation
Index SSTs see sea surface temperatures SSTAs see sea surface temperature
anomalies Standardized Precipitation Index
(SPI) 150-3,165,168-80; 1995-6 US drought 177-8; classification scale 169; historical analyses (USA) 170-7; limitations 169; Oklahoma case study 151-3; time series analyses 170-1, 172, 174; US monitoring (1997)178-9
state farms, FSU 382-3, 387 statistical forecasts: Ethiopia 136;
NE Brazil 72, 72-3; prediction 28-9, 323; southern Africa 125-6; SST 46
status of drought: historical perspective 148; spatial domain issues 148-9; temporal domain issues 147-8
steppelands see Virgin Lands Scheme storm track changes, US 84 streamflow volumes, Canadian
Prairies 327 structural reform programmes,
Africa 305-6 sub-Saharan Africa 287-311;
1991-92 drought 298, 301; 1991-92 response 287-8, 308(n3); case studies 296-306; climatic trends 289-90; economic impact 288-91; economic sensitivity 297-8; economic structure 291-6
subsidence: China 341; US droughts 84
subtropical anticyclones, Kenya 53
subtropical jetstrearns 53-4 summer rainfall, China 103-6, 107 Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI)
153,164; criticism 168; early warning 345
surprise theory of climate change 234-6
SWSI see Surface Water Supply Index
synoptic systems: Canadian Prairies 319-20, 321; Ethiopia 137; Iberian Peninsula 367-9; USA 86-8
task force, USA 253 taxation, and impact 303 TCI see Temperature Condition
Index teleconnections 24-6; Canadian
Prairies 320; China 333-6; Ethiopia 136
Temperature Condition Index (TCI) 196, 199, 203, 205, 206, 207
temperatures: Canadian Prairies 323, 328; China 343
temporal domain issues 147-8 Texas (USA) 3, 92-3 Thornthwaite, C.W., precipitation
effectiveness index 160-1 thresholds 6,12, 22 time series: drought indices 333;
PDSI 318 TOGA see Tropical Ocean Global
Atmosphere programme top-down models, impact evaluation
257,263-7 trade, and economic drought 298-9 tree-ring records, Sierra Nevada
(USA) 236-7 trend forecasting method, Ethiopia
136 tropical cyclones, Kenya 54 Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere
(TOGA) project 61-2, 218
UNCED see United Nations Conference on Environment and Sustainable Development
United Nations Conference on Environment and Sustainable Development (UNCED) 54-5
United States: 1928-34 drought 238; 1987-92 drought 87, 201, 238; 1995-6 drought 3, 86-7, 92, 93,177-8, 250-1; 1996 response 252-3, 254; circulation factors 84-5; climatological risk 91-3; economic impact 256-68; empirical prediction methods 90-3; flow anomalies and drought 88-9; Gulf Coast rainfall distribution 32; losses 3; medieval period 237-40; MINK study 257-61; moisture fluxes 85; monitoring networks 154-7; National Drought Mitigation Center 168, 169; National Weather Service 89, 154-5; Nebraska history 170-7; percentage area of drought 14; precipitation anomalies 23, 24; prediction models 94-5; Sierra Nevada history 236-8; SPI in Oklahoma 151-3; synoptic patterns 86-8
urban development, China 341
VCI see vegetation condition index vegetation, remote sensing 188, 198 vegetation condition index (VCI)
165,196,199, 203, 205, 206, 207; South Africa 360
vegetation loss, South Africa 353-4 vegetation stress, China 201-3 Virgin Lands Scheme (FSU) 381-8;
climate 382; food production 381; impact of cultivation 384-7; political decisions 381, 382-5; state farms 382-3
vulnerability 8, 9, 15, 246; Africa 287; China 338-9; Morocco 282, 285; South Africa 360; USA 3
Walker cell, South Atlantic 121-2 Walker, Sir Gilbert 44; prediction
24-6
war, impact 301 warning systems see early warning
systems water resources: Canadian Prairies
326; impact in China 336-9; management (southern Africa) 300, 301; South Africa 352-3; southern Spain 374-7, 378
water restrictions: South Africa 353; southern Spain 377-8
water shortages: southern Spain 375-6; USA 251
waterfowl, Canadian Prairies 327 WCRP see World Climate Research
Programme weather data: Africa 223; availability
196-8; South Africa 271 weather forecasting, evaluation
265-6 weather outlook, Ethiopia 136 weather-based monitoring system
223-4,231 wheat cultivation, FSU 383-4 wheat yields, Canadian Prairies 322,
325 wind anomaly patterns, USA 86 wind erosion: China 342; FSU 382,
385 wind frequency, China 342 WMO see World Meteorological
Organization World Climate Research Programme
(WRCP) 61 World Meteorological Organization
(WMO): aridity definition 161; index 159
Zambia: agricultural structure 300, 305; development planning 304-5; economic sensitivity 297-8
Zimbabwe 296-7; agricultural structure 300; budgetary implications 302-4; commodity prices 299; development planning 304-5; economic sensitivity 297-8; impact on manufacturing 294; trade 298-9
