ABSTRACT
Making predictions about the future is fraught with uncertainty, and humility is always in order for those foolish enough to offer more than the most general of prognostications. Professional futurologists employ a variety of specific technical methods, including trend extrapolation, genius forecasting, consensus methods, simulations, cross-impact matrix methods, scenario building, decision trees, and creative disorder (a method that relies on innovations coming from grass-roots levels). None of these methods may be capable of capturing unanticipated events, known as “wild cards,” or successfully anticipating their impacts. Lacking genius, a group capable of achieving consensus, and suitable simulations, the safest statements one can offer are based on trend analyses, and some imaginative scenario building and cross-matrix thinking(1,2).
