ABSTRACT
Within the framework of a research programme focused on the EU's energy security, it is necessary to examine and – as far as practicable – quantitatively estimate the geopolitical risk associated with energy supply. The assessment of the influence of the geopolitical context on energy security is far from objective and is usually based on expert knowledge and with the help of qualitative global policy scenarios (see Chapter 5). To provide a more objective foundation to geopolitical energy risk and transcend the limitations of qualitative methods, without resorting to subjective probabilities, Chapter 7 reviewed the concept of risk and proposed a causal typology of energy risks (see Figure 7.2). A distinction was drawn then between primary energy risks – divided into socioeconomic and technical risks – and their effects or secondary energy risks.
