Quantifying geopolitical energy risks: the Socioeconomic Energy Risk Index
The causal typology of energy risks introduced in the previous chapter, Section 7.2 – summar ized in Figure 7.2 – set the founda tion for the selection of a meth odology to quantify energy risks. Specifically, a quantitative method is required to estim ate the geopolit ical con text that may complement the use of qualit at ive global pol icy scen arios. In Section 7.3.2 some con sidera tions were made about socio economic energy risk that now will be used to de velop an estimation method. The appropriate method should have some specific features:
• Assuming the absence of ob serv able vari ables able to meas ure directly socio economic energy risk, the pro ced ure should have the abil ity to use a combination of vari ables related to the four risk factors shown in Figure 7.1 – eco nomic, energy, polit ical and social factors – to obtain a single specific meas ure per coun try for each group of variables.