ABSTRACT
Democratisation in sub-Saharan Africa (hereafter referred to as Africa)1 has attracted increasing academic attention during the last decade. Case studies and comparative accounts en masse have created a flora of more or less helpful theories. However, general approaches using statistical methods have been very limited in number. One that stands out is Bratton and van de Walle’s Democratic Experiments in Africa (1997), which analyses the period from 1988 to 1994. It has had considerable influence on the opinions of scholars and other analysts alike. But how robust are the findings? And, which are the principal challenges to a quantitative study of democratisation in Africa? These are the questions that this chapter addresses. Its main argument is that Bratton and van de Walle’s results do not pass the test of time. The models they present have low predictive power when applied to both a shorter and a longer time-span than in the authors’ original analysis. Hence, the theoretical gains of their contribution are limited.
