chapter  28
The Goal Complete: The Winning Difference
Pages 7

Scoring a ‘goal’ is supported by performance. Only the tip of the iceberg is visible. Similarly a goal, being the only factor that is counted, manifests performance which is not fully appreciated as it includes elements which are not quantified or counted. It still exists regardless, in the same way that the remainder of the iceberg is beneath the surface. With the iceberg 8 parts out of 9 are beneath the surface and invisible; similarly there is a “Near Constant Law of Chance” that 180 possessions on average are lost and won back, supporting the single occurrence of ‘goal’. At an assumed 240 possessions per match, this figure represents 133 goals on average for and against. This figure is the same at all levels of the game, however it is played, and whether fast or slow, and was the subject of the report by Lanham (1991). Reep and Benjamin (1968) reported that there were near constant laws of chance dominating football at every level. Lanham (1991) added a further ‘Near Constant Law of Chance’ confirming that the figure of 180 possessions on average per goal, with a variation of 10% either way, was ‘ideal’. It is the intention of this report to extend the work of Lantham (1991) by looking at the three stages that go to make up the 180 lost possessions of the average goal.