chapter  31
Applications of Logistic Regression to Shots at Goal in Association Football
Pages 2

Pollard and Reep (1997) introduced the use of logistic regression to analyse shots at goal in soccer. This approach allowed researchers to investigate factors thought to affect the chance of scoring from a shot. Factors identified as significant were utilised to quantify a shooting chance by estimating a shot’s scoring probability. These shot probabilities were then used as an outcome measure to quantify the effectiveness of playing strategies and to construct contour diagrams for scoring probability. The following study expands upon Pollard and Reep’s approach. More factors are analysed to investigate their importance in scoring from shots and shot probabilities are used as a comparative tool to evaluate shooting performance of 2002 World Cup semi-final teams (the quality of chance a team creates/concedes and the individual efficiency in scoring/saving these chances). Some limitations of logistic regression analysis are discussed and some directions for future work are suggested.