chapter  Chapter 33
Foresight in climate engineering
WithJohannes Gabriel, Sean Low
Pages 5

Climate engineering is a novel enterprise embedded in the complex and dynamic landscape of natural and human systems. This encompasses the entirety of the biosphere and climate system, and an evolving spectrum of states, organisations, and communities, with all of their constituent values, agendas, actions, and effects. Insight into the risks and uncertainties most relevant to decision-making in climate engineering could be gained from observing events that have not happened yet. Game theory and economic modelling, in gauging future strategic actions in climate engineering, assume that actors act upon probabilistic calculations of self-interest. This chapter discusses a pair of scenario-based foresight projects in climate engineering, in order to demonstrate some aspects of foresight in action. In terms of designing policy-oriented outputs, the earlier Yale workshop was designed to be a standalone exercise that hoped to serve as a pilot project for the use of foresight amongst academics and policymakers in climate engineering.