ABSTRACT
The paradox to be found in the generation of quantitative probabilistic predictions of risk to any organization, stems from the notion that in any system the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts. For example, a bicycle when stripped down into its components and placed in a box is nothing but a collection of engineered steel, rubber and plastic parts. However, when assembled in a particular way, the synergy created transforms those parts into the elements of a system from which a property emerges that the separate individual components did not possess. That is, when the parts are combined to form a bicycle, the output of the assembled system can be used as a mode of transport. Thus, the assembled bicycle has greater utility than the sum of all its dismantled constituent parts. This same argument can be employed to characterize the properties of an organization, that is, an organization is greater than the sum of its constituent parts.
