ABSTRACT
On 5 October 1973, about 24 hours before the Yom Kippur War broke out, Israel’s Directorate of Military Intelligence (AMAN) distributed an immediate Military Intelligence Review. Titled ‘Alert Status and Activity in Syria and Egypt as of 051000 Oct. 73’, the document summarized a long list of warning indicators that should have led any experienced person to the conclusion that the two states had completed all the preparations for attack and were on the verge of launching it. Indeed, at this stage, five of out of the six senior analysts of Syrian and Egyptian affairs in AMAN’s Research Division estimated that war was either certain or highly likely.2 But none of AMAN’s political and military consumers was aware of it. For them, the consensus of Israel’s sole intelligence estimate3 was expressed in paragraph 40 of the document, which said:
Although the mere taking of an emergency deployment at the Canal front implies, allegedly, warning indicators for an offensive initiative, to the best of our estimate no change took place in Egypt’s estimate of the balance of forces with the IDF. Therefore, the probability that they intend to resume fighting is low.4
