ABSTRACT
In the late afternoon of election day, Tuesday, November 8, 2016, Nate Cohn, a political forecaster at The New York Times, had Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the presidential election at 85 percent. The Trump campaign, signaling what many thought was their sense that he was going to lose, had denied media requests to film him and his team watching the returns. Early exit polls from that day had Clinton winning the electoral college with well above the requisite 270 votes. Conservative talk show host, Hugh Hewitt, a Trump voter himself, says about his prediction that Clinton would win, “I’ve never been this wrong.” Clearly, he was not the only one.1
