ABSTRACT

South Africa’s leaders, however, may be marching to a different set of priorities. If, as American experts believe,16 the Kalahari location was a planned test site, this would mean either that the South African leaders were prepared to defy the world in an extremely blatant and provocative way, or that they believed a test would go undetected. In either case the incentive to test a weapon would have persisted, and the test postponement may have been only a temporary expedient to see what concessions might be wrung from the West following the discovery of the site. Thus the suspected South African test in September 1979 signified perhaps that Pretoria had decided that the chances of Western nuclear co-operation were slim and that South Africa should proceed to test – though still hoping to be able to make a plausible denial. In view of the risks and limitations associated with each of the alternative strategies discussed, what course is South Africa likely to follow? And what will her basic security strategy look like in the 1980s?