ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating weather hazards during maize growth and presents the results of yield prediction from the combined use of daily meteorological and demand data of maize for suitable meteorological conditions. The study was carried out in an agricultural country of Jilin Province in Northeast China, one of the most important spring maize producing bases. The methodology proposed in this paper was used to assess the hazards of temperature, sunshine, precipitation, and comprehensive weather conditions in different periods during maize growth. It was also used to predict maize yield per unit area at harvest or 1 month to 3 months prior to harvest. Moreover, the established predictive models explained 76.3% of the interannual variability of spring maize production. Farmers, government agencies, and insurance companies can take advantage of the assessment results on the weather hazards and early prediction of crop losses conducted at the county level. Overall, the proposed procedure can be used to reduce crop uncertainty.
1 INTRODUCTION
