ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Groundwater field is a complex, open system. Groundwater simulation and prediction often deviated from true values, which is attributed to the uncertainty of groundwater modeling. Conceptual model is one of the main sources of the groundwater modeling uncertianty. In this study, The Mean Euclidean Distance (MED) between simulations and observations is proposed to assess the integrated likelihood value of conceptual model in Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Moreover, this proposed BMA method is compared with the traditional BMA method based on a synthetical groundwater model, and the characteristics of these two BMA methods are summarized.
