ABSTRACT
Passage of the welfare reform law of 1996 abruptly reversed sixty years of federal welfare policy. By June 2001, welfare rolls had fallen 59 percent from their historic high of 5.1 million families in March 1994. That translates into about 9 million parents and children who are no longer forced to rely on welfare. A number of respected researchers have used econometric models to estimate how much of the caseload decline was caused by welfare reform itself, compared with the economy and increased aid to low-income families. The results of randomized welfare experiments seem to confirm that the caseload decline is only partially due to welfare reform. In addition to the often unappreciated contribution of the economy and aid to the working poor, another significant aspect of the caseload decline is that so many mothers seem to be leaving welfare without taking jobs.
