ABSTRACT
Introduction The 2012 London Olympics will provide two of the main ingredients that constitute an attractive terrorist target: a large concentration of people and ready availability of mass international media. Certainly, the global Jihadi terrorists, of whom Al Qaeda is the dominant, if not sole, brand, could be attracted to an event that amasses people from all over the world and provides the prospect of instant global publicity for any terrorist attack they seek to carry out. How likely that will be is impossible to fully predict. At this stage it is, however, possible to understand the factors that will determine any decision by terrorists to attempt an attack. These factors can be found through an analysis of past Olympic Games, from better understanding of Al Qaeda and from the lessons of recent counterterrorism actions. The threat posed by a terrorist group is a combination of its intent and its capability. This chapter will concentrate on factors that influence intent rather than methodology of attack or the capability of groups to carry out an attack. To determine if Al Qaeda will plan to attack the London Olympics, it is first necessary to understand Al Qaeda’s ideological inheritance, as this is linked to what Al Qaeda wants to achieve. Then the role that terrorism plays in achieving its aims needs to be understood. It is also important to expose the peculiar nature of Al Qaeda, especially its influence on affiliated groups and individuals who share its aims so that their particular security challenges can be exposed. To begin with, the relationship between terrorism and the Olympics needs to be briefly explored to gain a historical perspective.
