ABSTRACT

In the 1950s Robert Triffin warned of the breakdown of the Bretton Woods international monetary system.3 Economists are not well known for the accuracy of their predictions. Triffin is one of the few economists to have made a correct prediction. Yet, no one took any heed of his predictions, even when it was clear that they were coming true. His analysis produced what has come to be known as the “Triffin paradox” or the Triffin dilemma. I am going to suggest that there is a similar “paradox” inherent in the globalisation of the international trading and financial system, and that it threatens the breakdown of the system.