chapter  14
16 Pages

Business as (Un)Usual: Integrated Scenario Analysis for Tourism in Antarctica –

ByMACHIEL LAMERS, BAS AMELUNG, JAN H. STEL

Introduction In 1775, after an unsuccessful 3-year search for the Antarctic continent, Captain James Cook concluded: ‘I can be bold to say, that no man will venture farther south than I have done, and that the land which may lie to the south will never be explored’ (cited in Landis 2001: 24-25). Being an explorer from the pre-industrial age, James Cook could not have known that the technological and economic developments that followed in the next 225 years would prove his prediction to be wrong. Future forecasts are always informed about what we know about the present and coloured by the position and opinion of the predictor. Predicting the future is diffi cult for any continent, including Antarctica, particularly because this most remote and isolated continent on the planet has always been relatively untouched by human developments.