chapter  10
44 Pages

Land use modelling in a recursively dynamic GTAP framework

ByALLA GOLUB, THOMAS W. HERTEL, BRENT SOHNGEN

Changes in land use and land cover represent an important driver of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and are a key part of any long-run GHG emissions scenario. Currently, agricultural activities generate the largest share (58 per cent) of the world’s anthropogenic non-CO2 emissions (84 per cent of nitrous oxide [N2O] and 47 per cent of methane [CH4]) and make up roughly 14 per cent of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (US Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA), forthcoming).1 At the same time, forestry offers considerable scope for carbon sequestration; yet most models of climate change policy have thus far failed to fully take into account the role of land use and land use change in determining changes in netGHGemissions as a result ofmitigation efforts. A large part of the problem has been the difficulty in appropriately modelling the derived demand and supply for land in the long run. Hence the focus of this chapter.