chapter  10
Estimating central bank behaviour in emerging markets
The case of Turkey
ByOzan Hatipoglu, C. Emre Alper
Pages 14

After the adoption of floating exchange rate regimes, several emerging markets decided to switch to an inflation-targeting framework which entailed explicit medium-term quantitative targets for inflation that their central banks had publicly

2declared. However, even after switching to inflation targeting, an emerging market central bank (EMCB) has reasons to care about exchange rate movements and their effects on the financial account balance. Firstly, due to the observed high degree of asset and liability dollarisation and shallow financial markets, emerging markets are more susceptible to sudden capital account reversals, and an EMCB is more likely to actively respond to sudden movements in exchange rates when compared with, for example, the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. Secondly, central banks in countries that depend heavily on exports for their economic welfare may be more inclined to bow to political pressure to adjust their exchange rates. An upcoming election, for instance, may compound that pressure.