ABSTRACT
Urban sustainability calls for a long-range perspective on an uncertain future. Policy analysis is a field fraught with many uncertainties. In the past decades scenario analysis has been developed as a scientific tool for coping with and managing long-run uncertainties in the policy-making process. A scenario may be defined as a possible, often hypothetical, sequence of events constructed in an internally consistent way for the purpose of focusing attention on casual processes and decision points (Kahn and Wiener, 1967). Consequently, a scenario consists normally of three parts: a description of the present situation; a description of future situations; a description of a number of events that may connect the present situation with future ones (the path) (see Nijkamp et al., 1997). The advantages of scenario methods over long-run forecasting tools are shown in Table 3.1. Progressive advantages of scenario approaches in policy analysis https://www.niso.org/standards/z39-96/ns/oasis-exchange/table">
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Focus on quantified variables
More emphasis on details
Results determined by status quo
Deterministic analysis
Closed future
Statistical-econometric tests
From quantitative to qualitative
Single-track thinking
Reactive problem driven
Multiple implicit assumptions
Limited set of options
Model-determined mind
Focus on qualitative pictures
More emphasis on trends
Results based on future images
Creative thinking
Open future
Plausible reasoning
From qualitative to quantitative
Multi-track thinking
Proactive vision driven
Transparent simple assumptions
Open range of options
Alertness to signals of uncertainty
Source: Nijkamp et al. (1997)