ABSTRACT
Among the vast array of thinking skills that humans possess are the abilities to engage in counterfactual and causal reasoning. Counterfactual reasoning allows us to imagine something in the world being other than it actually was or is (i.e., counter-to-fact); we can then imagine, or mentally simulate, the world continuing to unfold in a direction other than the direction it has actually taken. This ability allows us to torment ourselves with regret (“If only I hadn’t gone for a drive that night . . .”) or to create our own personalized version of It’s a Wonderful Life. It also allows us to plan for the future and to learn from our mistakes. Whereas counterfactual reasoning is about possibility, causal reasoning is about reality. Finding causes is at the heart of our scientific endeavors; assessing causality is essential for meting out justice in our legal system. As many researchers are fond of noting, discovering causal relations allows us to understand, explain, predict, and control our world.
