ABSTRACT
The technical reality is that there are few cut-and-dried facts regarding the probabilities of serious reactor mishaps. The nuclear-power technology is so new and the probabilities in question are so small that risk estimates cannot be based on empirical observation. Reliance on imaginability magnifies fears of nuclear power by blurring the distinction between what is remotely possible and what is probable. Reliance on imaginability helps to produce perception gap and also to sustain it, by acting as a barrier to discussions of nuclear safety. Management of nuclear power must be based upon an understanding of how people think about risks. Certainly the risks from nuclear power seem to be prime candidates for exaggeration because of extensive media coverage they receive and their association with the vivid, imaginable dangers of nuclear war. One inevitable consequence of this perception gap is uncertainty and distrust on the part of a public that suspects the actual risks are vastly greater than the experts' assessments.
