ABSTRACT
Prospective life tables depend on forecasting age-specific mortality. Considerable attention has been paid to methods for forecasting mortality in recent years. Much of this work has grown out of the seminal Lee-Carter method (Lee & Carter 1992). Other extrapolative approaches use Bayesian modelling, generalized linear modelling and state-space approaches. Methods for forecasting mortality have been extensively reviewed by Booth (2006) and Booth & Tickle (2008). This chapter covers various extrapolative methods for forecasting age-specific central death rates (also referred to as mortality rates). Also covered is the derivation of stochastic life expectancy forecasts based on mortality forecasts.
