chapter  3
18 Pages

- Top Five Asia-Pacific Economies: Integration, Conflict, Vulnerability, and Crisis, 2010–2020

Second only to the undulating financial crisis and lethargy that characterize much of the global economy today, the most important questions facing policy makers around the globe are how Asia will evolve over the next decade and how military conflict can be avoided there. This chapter provides an analysis of these two questions by focusing on the real economy for the top five Asian economies using key statistics. Our analysis reveals that the largest Asian economies are expected to become increasingly integrated as we move through the decade. While the literature on economic integration (EI) and military conflict is divided as to whether EI reduces prospects for military conflict, an extensive game that accounts for economic development and symbiotic economic relationships causes us to conclude that military conflict is likely to be avoided. We also employ statistical analyses to assess economic vulnerability in the region. Forecasts of future regional growth in output and trade enable us to determine that an Asian economic crisis, should one materialize, would appreciably affect the global economy. Generally, our findings lead us to the view that the current state of the world serves as an important backdrop for convincing world leaders of a cooperative and collaborative approach as best for addressing regional and global economic issues. Reason suggests that a similar approach is applicable for military issues.