chapter  9
24 Pages

Scenarios up to 2050 – assumptions, figures and more

ByRainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes

In public debates, energy scenarios, like other scenarios, are sometimes mistaken for forecasts of what will inevitably happen. And they are often used by decision makers to describe and explain (and facilitate) what should happen.They are used to understand the logic and variables of past and future events and how development could be influenced. Scenarios provide information on how to facilitate desirable developments by changing parameters. Scenarios are developed to understand underlying processes, and they are refined to better assess potential levers to shift development in one or the other direction. In addition, scenarios often include variables regarding impact of development on and from other areas, e.g. the impact of certain energy shares on economic growth, jobs, greenhouse gas emissions or supply security or the sensitivity of renewables growth to GDP development and vice versa.