ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: Precipitation is a common cause of floods and types of precipitation determines the scale of modelling. Although the processes which generate runoff are well understood, it is normally possible to incorporate them into flood forecasting procedures only in a generalised and largely empirical manner because of their spatial and temporal complexity. The experiences of flood forecasting in Slovenia are presented in the contribution. The applications of the HEC-1 model are described as well the experiences with the HBV model which was tested for runoff simulation on the Savinja basin. The uncertainty of simulated river discharge is mainly the result of precipitation uncertainty associated with the average basin precipitation. To find out the measure of runoff uncertainty regarding to precipitation error, the analysis of sensitivity of conceptual models to rainfall error has been performed showing that the accurate representation of precipitation in time and space scale is essential for rainfall-runoff modelling and flood forecasting. Flood forecasting with predicted precipitation of the ALADIN/SI model demonstrates the uncertainty of precipitation forecasts.
