ABSTRACT
Complex biological systems can only be progressively understood with the aid of mathematical models (Wastney et al., 1998). There is no question that predictive microbiology is one of the most useful approaches, not only in determining the microbiological impact of different steps associated with production, distribution, and retailing of a food, but in determining the optimum conditions of many processes. The benefits of microbial behavior modeling in Hazard Analysis and Control Critical Points (HACCP), risk assessment, and food safety systems include predicting shelf life, assessing the hygiene efficiency of processing and distribution, and establishing the likely effects of any deviations from normal manufacturing processes. However, as Giffel and Zwietering (1999) pointed out, assumptions and limitations of the performance of models must be understood; predictions are not absolute, but in many cases, the accuracy is sufficient to use these models as a tool in management decisions. The golden rules of predictive microbiology for practical application, as clearly summarized by Everis and Betts (2000), are shown in Table 1.
