ABSTRACT
In this paper we explain how we have designed and implemented a structured expert judgment elicitation process to identify the key uncertainties for a particular offshore wind farm context and to quantify selected model parameters associated with epistemic uncertainties. In Section 2 we overview our contextual model to set the scene before describing the mathematical approach to modelling the epistemic uncertainties. In Section 3 we explain our general protocol of expert judgment elicitation, while in Section 4 we discuss how we gathered judgmental data from a panel of experts with experience in wind farm engineering, technology and operations for a UK Round III wind farm application. In Section 5 we show how the subjective assessments of epistemic uncertainties made by our expert panel can be used to instantiate the model and present selected outputs of modelling. We conclude in Section 6 by discussing the methodological and practical implications of our results.
