ABSTRACT
Any talk of future conflict in the Middle East has the ring of inevitable tragedy. The logic of historical momentum is on the side of war. As one moves across the Middle East from North Africa to the Indian Ocean, 10 states are already in conflict or on the edge of conflict. The logic of arms is sustained by the current rate of military effort in the Middle East. The current drop in oil prices and sheer saturation may temporarily reduce the rate of military buildup, but yet another logic intervenes, This is the logic of technology. The causes of instability are the true killers in war and the key barriers to peace. Arab-Israeli Conflict is an endemic source of radicalism and tension throughout the region, it is steadily discrediting the United States with virtually every Arab population, weakening US relations with every moderate and conservative Arab state, and strengthening every extremist and radical state and movement.
