chapter  3
68 Pages

The Soviet Union and the World Economy in the 1980S: A Review of the Alternatives

WithDonald W. Green

This chapter aims to sketch the likely development of Soviet economic relations with the World Economy over the decade 1976–1985, the period of the Tenth and Eleventh Five-Year plans. Trade between the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe has been disaggregated into four commodity groups: machinery, raw materials, food, other consumer goods. In the past, Soviet exports of fuel and materials to the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) were a function of net material product in Eastern Europe and also determined a smaller flow of material imports from the CMEA. During the construction of the Soviet Econometric Model a new methodology was developed for evaluating the quantitative impact of imported machinery on Soviet industrial production; to a certain extent, this technique provides a measure of the gains from technology transfer. The projections presented were computed using a 1977 version of SOVMOD III, the third generation SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model.