ABSTRACT
This chapter provides an overview of the meteorological circumstances contributing to the flood conditions in the Mississippi watershed and examines some of the possible external forcing mechanisms and internal dynamics that controlled the timing, intensity, and duration of the period of precipitation. It assesses the weather forecasts issued during the flood. When nature conspires to persistently concentrate weather patterns at one location, even short-term weather events can collectively create a major climate anomaly against which a modern society provides little protection or advance warning. Weather predictions and climate outlooks issued on an operational basis by the National Weather Service during the flood have been assessed. The test of the skill of the short-range weather forecast is its capability to accurately predict precipitation, as to location, areal extent, and intensity. A statistical basis for assessing forecast accuracy involves the threat score, which compares the magnitude and location of the forecast precipitation with that of the observed precipitation.
