ABSTRACT
Refiners tend to be justifiably skeptical when oil analysts talk about what is certain in the long term. It is safe to talk about the long term, since it is unlikely that, in the long term, anyone will remember what was predicted. Planning based on the "big picture" has become increasingly ineffective because there are so many exceptions. Without increases in demand, there is little chance of price stability, irrespective of oil exporters' supply control strategies. There are statements about the long-term oil market that any reasonable person must accept. The industry has been suffering from overall capacity surplus and differing government and industry policies on rationalization of capacity. Total regional demand for fuel oil in power generation is expected to decline, despite a large rise in electricity demand. Imports into the region were assumed constant in all demand cases at the levels.
