ABSTRACT
In the 1990s, bi-polarity in the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia leading the GCC and balancing Iran and Iraq (isolated under sanctions), combined with a US security protectorate, made for relative stability. This began to change after the US removal of Saddam in Iraq gave Iran influence over Iraq, while, at the same time, Saudi control of the smaller GCC states loosened, in part as their own bilateral links to the US protected them from Saudi dictates (as well as Iran). This led to a shift toward multi-polarity and greater instability in the Gulf. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia was facing multiple perceived threats: from Iran’s missile capability; in Iraq from Islamic State militants but also Shia militias; and from the Houthis in Yemen where its intervention got bogged down. The attempt to isolate Qatar over its ties to Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood backfired and actually brought Turkey and Iran in to protect Qatar. These ever more complex conflicts and alignments kept the Gulf highly insecure.
