ABSTRACT

Synopsis of Case ......................................................................................................................... 207 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 208 Pertinent Legal Cases ................................................................................................................ 212 Applied Ethics and Moral Considerations ............................................................................. 212 Empirically Based Methods and Applications ....................................................................... 212

Seriousness Scoring System ................................................................................................. 212 Violence Meta-Analysis .........................................................................................................214 Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) ........................................................................... 215 Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) .............................................................................216 Sex-Off ender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) .................................................................. 218 Sexual Recidivism Meta-Analysis ....................................................................................... 219 Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Off ense Recidivism (RRASOR) .............................. 220 Minnesota Sex-Off ender Screening Test-Revised (MnSOST-R) .................................... 221 Static and Dynamic Risk Assessment Tools ...................................................................... 221 Dangerousness Prediction Decision Tree .......................................................................... 222 Spousal Assault Risk Assessment (SARA) ......................................................................... 223 Sexual, Violence, Risk (SVR-20) .......................................................................................... 223 Historical, Clinical, Risk Management (HCR-20) ............................................................ 224 California Actuarial Risk Assessment Tables (CARAT) ................................................. 224 Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) ....................................................................... 224 Th e Workplace Violence Risk Assessment Checklist (WVRAC)................................... 225 STATIC-99 ............................................................................................................................. 225 Other Measures ..................................................................................................................... 225

Basic Points to Consider ............................................................................................................ 228 Avoiding Evaluation and Consultation Errors ...................................................................... 229 Treatment Considerations ........................................................................................................ 230 Writing Forensic Reports and Testifying as an Expert ........................................................ 231 Novel Applications and New Directions ................................................................................ 232 References .................................................................................................................................... 232 Legal Reference ........................................................................................................................... 235

Th is chapter focuses on advances in violence risk analysis-also termed dangerousness assessment and violence prediction-and provides a sample report for use with clinical forensic settings and situations. Th e focus is on quantitatively derived methods and decision analysis. Little doubt exists that violence risk assessment based on statistically derived empirical factors and decision analysis is superior to a purely clinical assessment (Breiman, Friedman, Olshen, and Stone, 1984; Gottfredson and Gottfredson, 1988; Grove and Meehl, 1996). In regard to sex-off ender recidivism across various studies and investigations, for example, Hanson and Bussiere (1998) found strong support for statistical assessment (r = .46) as opposed to clinical assessment (r = .10), the last not much better than chance. Hanson’s fi nding actually refl ects a trend favoring quantitative methods regarding violence prediction over the last fi ve decades involving a wide variety of subpopulation groups (Bonta and Hanson, 1994; Bonta, Law, and Hanson, 1998; Borum and Otto, 2000; Garnder, Lidz, Mulvey, and Shaw, 1996; Hall, 1987; Quinsey, Rice, and Harris, 1995).