ABSTRACT
Predictive microbiology represents a rational, quantitative, and generic approach to improving food quality and safety and to developing an understanding of the ‘dynamic’ microbial ecology of foods. Although models describing microbial inactivation have been used by food processors for decades, concerns have been expressed about the practical application of the current generation of models that describe the rate of microbial growth, or the probability of growth/toxin production occurring at all. Problems in the application of predictive microbiology are considered, and strategies for their resolution reviewed and exemplified by reference to existing programs and current research. The relationship between predictive microbiology and other newer strategies, such as HACCP and ‘hurdle technology’, is also considered. It is concluded that predictive microbiology is more a philosophy than a specific method or technology, and that predictive models are analytical tools that will continue to be developed to enable the performance of increasingly sophisticated tasks.
