ABSTRACT
Risk-based methods of analysis offer several advantages in the management of water distribution networks over conventional techniques. The paper outlines the potential rôles of risk analysis in the utility industry and describes two applications of the method in a water company. The first is a predictive condition assessment model intended for use as a decision making tool for network maintenance, and the second is a burst risk model for trunk mains that is already in use in the London area. The paper discusses the potential benefits to be gained by adopting risk based analytical methods and outlines the requirements for integrating such methods within network management programmes.
The predictive condition assessment model, for use in the prioritisation of the repair and replacement of individual mains, is based on performance data, pipe condition data and environmental factors that cause deterioration in pipe condition. The principal rôles of the trunk mains burst risk model are to aid operation and planning functions. It is implemented within a geographical information system (GIS) framework.
