ABSTRACT
The increase in municipal waste generation and the environmental effects of waste management have led to the development of an extensive European Union (EU) waste policy. One of the overall aims of the Sixth Environmental Action Programme (EAP) (2002-12) is to decouple the use of resources and the generation of waste from the rate of economic growth, and to significantly reduce the volume (i) of waste generated and (ii) of waste disposal. The EU Landfill Directive (1999/31/EC), which aims to reduce the negative environmental effects of waste disposal, sets long-term targets for landfilled biodegradable municipal waste (BMW). In 2007 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the landfill of BMW accounted for 2.6 per cent of total GHG emissions in the EU-15 (EEA 2007). Andersen et al. (2007) presented a European model for waste and material
flows, linking amounts of waste to the development of economic activities, based on analyses of past trends. Using an updated version of this model, and incorporating projections for economic development based on a scenario developed for DG TREN (European Commission 2006), we estimate municipal waste generation from 2005 to 2020. The estimation of the model is based on Eurostat data on municipal waste generation, and economic and socio-economic data for the period 1995 to 2006. In this chapter we present a baseline scenario for the management of
municipal waste in the EU, and an outlook for meeting the targets of the Landfill Directive for BMW. We also estimate GHG emissions from the management of waste. GHG emissions from landfills are mainly methane (CH4), which is produced by the fermentation of the biodegradable parts of the waste. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines (IPCC 2006) are used to calculate GHG emissions from landfills. The methodology for the estimation of GHG emissions is based on Skovgaard et al. (2008). Next section presents the model equations and then we summarize the
results of the estimations for municipal waste generation. A description of European waste policy and municipal waste management for the period 1995-2006 follows. Then we present some assumptions related to the calculation of GHG emissions and baseline projections for municipal waste, waste
management and GHG emissions. The final section provides a short summary and conclusions.
