ABSTRACT
Whether in a bar brawl or in nuclear escalation, deterrence works when one is able credibly to threaten or upset the enemy’s center of gravity and inflict unacceptable losses upon him. Deterrence relies upon the question: Is it worth it? Is the price-earning ratio of the contemplated action so negative that it would wipe out the capital? Deterrence works if the price to be paid by the party to be deterred largely exceeds his expected earnings. But deterrence only works if the enemy is able and willing to enter the same calculus. If the enemy plays by other rules and calculates by other means, he will not be dissuaded. If the enemy’s calculus is that he wishes to exchange his own life on earth for eternal bliss and to extol Allah’s triumph, and if to him the Apocalypse is more desirable, he will not be deterred.
