ABSTRACT
Global climate change is predicted to have substantial impacts on southern Africa’s biodiversity, including wide-scale extinctions over the next 50 years (Rutherford et al, 1999; Hannah et al, 2002a and b; Gitay et al, 2001 and 2002; Midgley et al, 2002a and b; MA, 2005). At a global scale, Thomas et al (2004) have predicted that 15–37 per cent of species in their sample (which covered 20 per cent of the Earth’s surface) may be at risk of premature extinction due to anthropogenically caused global change by 2050. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, using different models and assumptions based largely on habitat loss, reached similar conclusions (MA, 2005). Within South Africa, a reduction in size and an eastward shift for current biomes is predicted and up to half of the country will likely have a climatic regime that is not currently found in the country (Rutherford et al, 1999). The succulent karoo biome, (a succulent-dominated semi-desert located on the southwestern coast of southern Africa) is projected to be the most severely impacted, with the grassland and fynbos (a Mediterranean-climate sclerophyllous thicket that approximates to the Cape Floristic region) biomes also likely to suffer from high climate change impacts (Rutherford et al, 1999; Midgley et al, 2002a and b). Fynbos and succulent karoo are biodiversity hotspots of international importance (Myers et al, 2000), with the latter being one of only two globally important arid-climate biodiversity hotspots.
