ABSTRACT
Political leaders live a precarious life: the demands made always exceed the leaders’ capacity to satisfy them. They are expected to solve numerous-and contradictory-social problems, to provide employment and prosperity without inflation, and peace with strength. To prevent voters’ dissatisfaction, officials can deliver what the voters want, persuade the voters that they are delivering even if they aren’t, persuade the voters not to want what the officials cannot or do not wish to deliver, or distract the voters’ attention by creating or dealing with a new problem. Faced with high levels of popular discontent, even a democratically elected government may feel some temptation to try to divert hostility toward foreign adversaries, and may be so preoccupied with its domestic problems that it exaggerates the hostility of foreign adversaries or wishfully exaggerates its chances of cowing or defeating them.1
