ABSTRACT
The intensification of economic nationalism in Europe and the USA will have an extremely complex impact on Pacific Asia trade. In particular considerable uncertainty surrounds the impact of the post1992 single European market. Davenport and Page (1991) have estimated that while Singapore will experience a 4 per cent fall in export earnings and Indonesia a 4 per cent rise, the impact on most of Pacific Asia will be slight. However, it is estimated that while there will be gains for ASEAN exporters of minerals, tropical products and agricultural raw materials, in contrast there will be a loss of trade in such areas as clothing, electronics, vehicles and footwear, i.e. in the industries where EC manufacturing is lagging. Overall, while the impact will be differential it will be far less serious than the loss of investment if the EC investment boom continues.
