ABSTRACT
How have political scientists understood the so-called “Arab Spring,” and what do they make of the prospects for democracy in the wake of the overthrow of four dictators and the challenges facing at least two others? This essay argues that analysts have oscillated between two contradictory approaches: one is the focus on “the persistence of authoritarianism.” The other is the literature focusing on the possible transition to democracy. Each school of thought has its merits, but the earthquake of the Arab uprisings and the confusing, not to say chaotic, aftermath casts doubt on the adequacy of both. Authoritarian systems have proven not to be as durable as expected, but nearly two years into the post-uprising period it is far from clear that “democracy” will be the final destination. We need to turn away from these polarities and look to new ways of understanding the complicated new realities.
