ABSTRACT
Threats are emerges from so-called non-state actors, terrorists, organized criminals and cyber hackers, as much as from potential state aggression. Globalization of communications has sensitized social attitudes to issues such as famine and disease, international human rights, migration and immigration. Technology has continued to transform people lives and has raised new concerns over personal privacy in a digital age. The definition of intelligence purpose refers to decision-making and thus to actions people want to take and outcomes they want to see. The world of national security and intelligence takes a strongly rationalist Enlightenment stance based on the assumption of human improvement. At each link of the intelligence chain, well-known cognitive weaknesses appears to delay or distort connections that need to be made: intelligence studies literature is full of discussion of group think, mirror imaging, transferred judgements, confirmation bias and similar hiatuses. A traditional way of modelling intelligence knowledge is to make a distinction between estimates of capabilities and of intentions.
